Opinions expressed are those of the poster and not necessarily the Sonoma County Young Democrats.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Time to go to work

In this last election, the Democratic Party at the state level captured three additional Assembly seats, maintained the status quo in the State Senate, U.S. Senate, and The House. At the federal level, the Democratic Party picked up the Presidency, 21 seats in the House of Representatives and 7 (or so) seats in the Senate. You would have to be crazy to say that Democrats don’t have the upper hand in the next round of elections.


…But Democrats do not have the upper hand in the next round of elections.


According to the Secretary of State website, California’s Democratic Party experienced a small increase (about half of a percent) of voter identification while the Republican Party lost about 2.5%. This means the Independent, or decline to state, soaked up the additional two percent in Republican losses, bringing its representation to 20%. If you add in every registered non-Democrat or Republican, it would make up one fourth of the California electorate.


Even more important is the voting trend in non-Presidential elections. Consistently in off years the Democratic and Republican parties both see a drop in representation at the hands of independent/decline to state, both in relative and absolute numbers.


And finally, 31 of the 58 counties showed a Republican majority even in the face of the Democratic landslide victory.


Instead of looking at the last election as a voter mandate to the Democratic Party, it’s very easy to see it as a backhand to the Republican Party. While we as a party did gain, the amount of voters who don’t feel represented went up even more. I strongly believe that while the incumbent always has the advantage for their specific position, the party not in power has an inherent advantage campaigning. The average person, with the aid of the media, remembers the things that aren’t going well much more readily than the things that are.


It’s time for us all to really get to work. This last election was a gimme- a throw away by the Republicans. They walked into it standing little to no chance. Maybe not this next election, but an election soon, we as a party need to work hard to understand why our message hasn’t courted the 25% of voters up for grabs.


The 31% of people in California who are Republican are not changing. If, at this point and time, you’re still a Republican, then chances are you’re not going to be persuaded to change ever. That 31% is their base figure, the amount they can always count on. And make no mistake, the Republicans have some very smart and charismatic young leaders. I would know, I study with them. They WILL eventually find a way to grab some of those swing voters if we don’t get there first.


We as Democrats should ride the wave while we can, but don’t forget that it’s the swell building under the wave that determines where it goes.

 
Clusty